Twitter is technically speaking, a multi-platform blogging service. It was designed as a way to post short messages of 140 characters or less, to update your friends and network with your current “status”, i.e. “What am I doing right now?” or share insightful information, i.e. “Look at this great article.” Over the past year it has gained significant traction as a business tool with everybody from entrepreneurs, small business, and to larger companies like Dell and Comcast.
But has Twitter reached its peak in popularity and is the darling of social media waning? Naysayers have been predicting the demise of Twitter as early as 2007 but it is still around and generates a passionate following. But is Twitter’s business model sustainable?
“The light that burns twice as bright burns half as long….and you have burned so very, very brightly, Roy.” – Blade Runner
Let’s look at a real life example of a twitter account that you could subscribe to: The National Geographic Society. Here is a sampling of their ‘twitters’ over a six hour period.
@NatGeoSociety
1. Pluto Has “Upside Down” Atmosphere http://tinyurl.com/b4xkal about 6 hours ago from twitterfeed
2. EXCLUSIVE PHOTOS: Rare Artifacts Return to Afghanistan http://tinyurl.com/arx4j6 about 6 hours ago from twitterfeed
3. Whale giveaway 5! How many calories per day does the average blue whale need for survival? Be the first to answer and win a prize about 8 hours ago from HootSuite
4. Our final giveaway is happening at 3P et. Be the first to answer and win Nat Geo prizes about 10 hours ago from HootSuite
5. Near Costa Rica, scientists study a stronghold of the blue #whale. Read the Nat Geo Magazine article http://tinyurl.com/da4bqs about 12 hours ago from HootSuite
The assumption is that because I have signed up for their Twitter account, I am interested in these topics. The “Pluto Has ‘Upside Down’ Atmosphere” article sounds interesting but is that enough to sustain my interest in their twitter feed. This is a lot of information that I need to digest and there is an assumption that I have the time and interest. In summary, there is no compelling reason for most people to use it, and many existing services — ranging from Instant Messenger to social networks — have overlapping functionality and value.
It is also rare that a communication medium maintains such popularity when it is controlled by a private entity. Opensource mediums that are successful have open standards and work in a distributed fashion with examples: newgroups, email, webpages, etc. Twitter’s growth as the defacto social communication medium is limited. However, its private ownership makes it very attractive to suitors; Facebook had expressed interest in purchasing them and the latest suitor is Google. They are less interested in the technology but desire to absorb Twitter’s bloated subscriber network.
Twitter’s business model will change for the sole reason that eventually the audience will move. It is the same reason we have abandoned malls for online shopping sites. Before that happens, Twitter will be acquired by another company. Any time you have a convergence of newness, mass popularity and little understanding you are liable to get an overrated, and very simple, technology. Twitter is not the first, and it will not be the last.
FYI: You can follow me on twitter at http://twitter.com/webmarketers
